At Five Thirty Eight, super-statistician Nate Silver takes his Baseball Prospectus skills over to a slightly more important venue. His sophisticated forecast model had President Obama with a .... wait for it ... 92.0% chance to win as of Monday night. Five Thirty Eight (named after the electoral college count) provided Obama supporters with a soothing sense of reassurance during Gov. Romney's surge in late October.
Top mathemeticians who support Romney ... sorry, don't have the links on the tip of my keyboard's tongue ... accused Silver of changing his day-by-day poll weighting to boost Obama's probabilities, so as to bolster confidence and momentum. Silver responded that he doesn't believe in political momentum and challenged Joe Scarborough to a bet on the election. We notice that he didn't offer 12:1 odds, though. :- )
Dick Morris was a close friend of Bill Clinton and has since turned attack dog against the Democrats. He used the Chick-Fil-A logic to predict a huge Romney win: that social conservatives, resenting President Obama's liberalism, would turn out in force. However, as of 6:00 pm PST Monday night, Morris' tweets were panicky.
Charles Krauthammer, an M.D. turned political pundit, is a fiscal conservative and social moderate. He has argued that Romney's late-October momentum was ruined by Hurricane Sandy, which gave photo opportunities to the Commander-In-Chief amounting to "advertising Obama couldn't have purchased with $10 million." The three things he saw as tilting the race to Obama were (1) the hurricane, (2) pictures of Chris Christie hugging and praising the president, and (3) the media's careful avoidance of scandalous news in Benghazi, Libya. Still, Krauthammer gingerly predicted a Romney win, based on the idea that on days 4 and 5 of the hurricane, it would set in that the hurricane had been badly handled.
David Letterman joked, "Tuesday we have the election, Wednesday we have the recount and Dec. 18, the Supreme Court gives the election to Romney!" HEH. Independent reporters eventually did, most people failed to notice, go to Florida during the Bush-Gore election and confirm the vote for Bush. The line's still a funny one.
This author's guess as of 6 pm PST? The timing of the calls for Pennsylvania and for Florida seemed crucial. If Romney won Florida decisively and early, that was the signal he'd have needed; if Florida went to the wire, that indicated an Obama night. On the other hand if Pennsylvania was closer than expected, that was a Romney signal, or if it went decisively to Obama, that would signal a second term for the President.
As of 6 pm PST, Pennsylvania had been called for the President and Florida was much tighter than expected. An Obama re-election? Also as of 6 pm PST, the national vote was 51% Romney, 48% Obama with 10% of the vote in. I've thought for two weeks that Romney was going to win the popular vote, perhaps clearly by a 51-48 type margin, with Obama winning the electoral college. We'll see the fur fly if that occurs.
Huh. This election makes the Bush-Gore battle look boring :- ) Is everybody here solidly federalist?