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conomic indicators are improving, and it’s starting to look like a true recovery in the United States. The most recent jobs numbers out from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday showed that 212,000 jobs were added to the private sector in December. This is the largest single month growth in the private sector (which includes seasonal hiring but not farm and agriculture jobs) in a while and brings unemployment down to its lowest level since 2009 at 8.5%. This is a 2% drop from November’s unemployment rate, which was revised up to 8.7%. This news has implications for both economic recovery, and the current political climate. The questions being; how long, and how strong?
First, according to The Wall Street Journal, the economy has continued to add jobs every month since October of 2010. In addition, growth has accelerated in the last couple of months, though it remains to be seen whether this is primarily a product of seasonal hiring or a true upward trend. As for the strength, economists say, “not enough”. Although unemployment has dropped, and even the so-called “under-employed” have dropped from 15.2% in November to 15.6%, it isn’t enough. October and November both saw gains of about 100,000 jobs, with about twice that number in December. However, economists believe that the U.S. needs to add 125,000 a month just to keep up with population growth, to say nothing of reaching pre-recession levels. There are still 13.1 million Americans unemployed, not including those that have been unemployed so long that they’ve stopped looking for work. The economy has added 1.6 million jobs over the course of 2011, which is still 6.1 million less than peak employment in January of 2008.
So what does all of this mean for Obama? He may have a positive talking point in his corner for the next couple of weeks, but the news (although undeniably good) is not likely to increase his political capital significantly. However, small victories like this as he continues to push for government investment in his jobs plan, may help to sway independent and moderate public opinion. Of course, it should be noted that although the private sector grew 212,000 jobs in December, the public sector shrank about 12,000 jobs. Although the shrinking public sector is largely the result of conservative targeting of public budget cuts, Republicans are likely to point to the atrophy as evidence of the public sector’s inability to stimulate growth. If this proves to be more than a holiday bump, and if it continues to stay in the spotlight as Obama frames his pro-middle-class campaign message, it may eventually turn to his favor. As of now, it’s too early to tell.
