Somehow the 90 day mark is when we start thinking about the future. I’m thinking about the future of the Democratic Party in light of recent events, and what it will look like after the elections this November. Will it be good? Will it be tragic? Catastrophic? Anti-climactic? We’ll see. But here is what I think will be the deciders in most peoples’ minds.

WHAT WE WILL VOTE ON IN NOVEMBER:

+ Job Creation: Whoever can convince people that they and their party will create jobs is going to win their election. Our unemployment rate is still at 9.?%, and you can bet that every single one of those people who don’t have a job will be out and voting for the person they think will get them a job. Whether that’s through social programs on the Democratic side or Tax incentives on the Republican side doesn’t matter- party is subsumed by personal need. It’s human nature.

+ Economy: People need money, businesses need money, Wall Street needs money. You can bet (money even) that there will be plenty of money going from businesses and lobbyists to the candidates they believe will help get them money. And their ads will tell people that they will get jobs and money. Whether any of that is credible or not is of course a moot point. Does Congress have a huge influence on the economy? Well, we don’t vote for Bernanke, so we do the next best thing.

+ Health Care: People will vote on what they feel around the health care legislation. There is still time to support it or repeal it, and how we feel about that will influence how we vote.

WHAT WE WON’T VOTE ON IN NOVEMBER:

+ Immigration: It’s a hot button issue, but it has always been. I don’t think that people will vote for their state or regional representatives based on their views on immigration. Will they do that within their state? Yes. But at the national level, I think that issue will be overshadowed by reactions to what the Democrats have done while Obama is in office. Obama won’t move on immigration- it’s not a priority for him. Like Paul Krugman writes in the New York Times: Obama is non-responsive to his more progressive supporters now that he is in office, instead focusing on going after the other party or sticking with the center. People know this, even if they don’t know that they know it. Obama is not going to do anything crazy on immigration- and by “crazy” I mean effective or fixe the problem.

+ Climate Change: As much as I don’t want to admit it, people don’t care about climate change. Nobody really thinks it’s happening, and if they do, they either ignore it because it’s not changing their day to day lives or shape their entire lives around it. The folks that fight for it are in the minority- everyone would rather think about the economy or their personal finances. While those things are green in their own right, they are going to get the votes, not the environment. Even the business part of the environment. Next year,… Next year,…

We’ll see how it goes.