In 1995, John Major’s conservative party was hit by a series of scandals that proved, ultimately, to be the final nail in the coffin for his government. In 1993, he’d launched the ‘Britain’s Back to Basics’ campaign, widely seen as an effort to reassert the moral standards on which the Conservative party was supposedly built. However, this was quickly undermined by a string of high profile adulteries among the leading lights of the party, and also a row over members of parliament selling access for money in what was termed ‘Cash for Questions’.

The Prime Minister was further undermined by political infighting within the ranks of the Tories over what course of action to pursue regarding Britain’s role in Europe (famously satirized as ‘wanting to be on the inside, pissing out, not on the outside, pissing in’); the combination of these two things lead to a leadership challenge in the summer of ‘95, and though he survived, his authority was fatally undermined, and he and his party succumbed to a resurgent Labour in the 1997 general elections.

Now, fast forward fifteen years. Like John Major, Gordon Brown is now under pressure. Instead of Conservative fighting over Europe, think Labour MPs fighting over Brown’s handling of the economy; instead of the ‘sleaze’ accusations, read the recent spate of members of parliament being held to task for fiddling their expenses claims. In and of themselves, the accusations of impropriety don’t seem to be that serious, but there’s a steady drip of them which combine to reduce the electorate’s confidence in Brown’s competence and leadership skills.

Another problem that both men share in common is that they both pale in comparison to their deeply flawed, but more charismatic predecessors. John Major had Margret Thatcher, the first female Prime Minister, the Iron Lady, the hero of the right. Gordon Brown has Tony Blair, who presided over ten years of growth and prosperity. In both cases, it could be argued that they got out at the right time, willingly or not.

What’s the final similarity? In 1997, John Major faced the young, vibrant, new face of the Labour Party, Tony Blair. He represented a break from the past, from stagnation, the possibility of a generation claiming their own political future. Whatever you might think of the current Conservative leader, David Cameron, a convincing narrative could be constructed that casts him in a similar light.

It’s definitely still possible that Gordon Brown, who despite his bluff exterior is a capable political operative, will be able to turn things around. Cameron is certainly not without his weak points, and though all the breaks seem to be going his way at the moment, he’ll surely have to face some tougher times before the election. One poll recently put Labour in third place in voter intentions should the elections take place today.

What you might have noticed in all of the above is very little about policies. It seems that over the last twenty or thirty years or so that Governments in Britain are not voted out of power on account of the electorate not liking their policies; indeed, John Major and Tony Blair were both granted another chance when they had entered difficult times. Rather, what seems to happen is that after a period of time, the party loses energy, ideas, and eventually collapses in upon itself. If the other side is in place to take advantage, then the process starts anew once more.

I’ll be writing more about what a conservative government in Britain would mean to the US, so check back soon.